Dream Act Fiscal Projections Balloon After Bill Signing

Potentially hundreds of illegal immigrants not originally considered in government tax estimates are planning to attend college this fall, according to student enrollment predictions by Casa of Maryland, the state's largest immigrant advocacy group.

Legislation permitting high school graduates who are in the country illegally to receive in-state tuition rates—also known as the Maryland Dream Act—was signed into law by Gov. Martin O’Malley (D) earlier this month.

The law goes into effect July 1, but efforts to repeal it by referendum are already underway.

"Based on our organizing in high schools in several counties, we believe that both Montgomery and Prince George’s County will produce several hundred high school grads taking advantage [of the tuition rate] and anywhere from 50 to 100 in other regions of the state," Casa spokeswoman Susanna Flores wrote in a recent email to Patch.

According to the Department of Legislative Services, the research arm for the General Assembly, Maryland taxpayers will pay an additional $788,000 in fiscal year 2014 and up to $3.5 million in 2016, based on enrollment projections of 366  illegal immigrants this fall. Each year, Maryland pays on average $2,100 in subsidies for each full-time student, or equivalent, enrolled at a community college. 

However, fiscal estimates by DLS prepared for Dream Act legislation were based on enrollment increases for only one school—Montgomery College. There are 16 community colleges in Maryland.

If Casa’s student enrollment projections are correct, the fiscal costs could be double or triple what was originally estimated in the bill’s fiscal note. 

"I think it’s possible, but I really don’t think at this point we have a very good grasp of it," said Mark Collins, a DLS analyst. "... I think that’s one good thing about the bill—it does require this count. So, if it turns out that it’s going to be three times as much, the Legislature will know about it pretty quickly. At that point it may be too late and people may not have an interest in reversing the law anyway, but at least we’ll know. Then we’ll have a better sense and know how much this initiative is costing."

According to DLS, a final fiscal note for Dream Act legislation is still unavailable due to a last-minute amendment relating to four-year higher education institutions. The amendment requires illegal immigrants to be counted as out-of-state students, which will likely affect tuition revenue.

While the costs for the bill are pending, opponents are working to gather petition signatures for a referendum. Nearly 19,000 signatures need to be collected by the end of the month. A total of 55,736 signatures—3 percent of total votes cast in the last gubernatorial election—are due  June 30.

Former District 8 Congressional candidate Mike Philips (R) is helping lead the state-wide petition referendum in Montgomery County.

"The petitions are being signed and we should exceed the number required by a large margin," said Philips.

Casa of Maryland, along with Lt. Governor Anthony Brown (D) are celebrating passage of the new law today at Wheaton High School. Help Save Maryland, an anti-illegal immirant advocacy group, is planning to protest the celebration and collect signatures for the petition drive.

Montgomery College is being sued for offering in-state and in-county tuition rates to illegal immigrants. A hearing at the Montgomery County Circuit Court is scheduled for May 25.